New energy automobile industry planning postpones the introduction of expert advice on rational development

"What is the development direction and ultimate goal of China's new energy vehicles? Is it not clear that the HEVs and electric vehicles that are currently under development are not final products? This is the eighth time that Premier Wen Jiabao has been at the China Association for Science and Technology at the end of May." The position made at the National Congress. In July, the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2011-2020)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning") as the programmatic document for the development of new energy vehicles during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period has not yet been introduced.

The "planning" for difficult labor and the "planning" for shrinking goals have been discussed since 2009 and have lasted two years. In August 2010, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology completed the drafting of the policy, and then solicited opinions from all parties and plans to release it at the end of the year. In March 2011, Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said in an interview with the media that the industry plan is expected to be announced in the first half of this year. On June 22, public information on the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that the "plan" has been basically completed and submitted to the State Council for approval. In July, officials from the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the introduction of the "plan" may be pushed to the end of the year.

When did the "planning" come out? A person close to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology told the “China Energy News” reporter that “planning” has very little chance of being introduced in July. “It is definitely something that will happen in the next few months. It will not be a good month to say.” The source said.

At the same time, it is reported that "Planning" has reduced the "12th Five-Year" electric vehicle industrialization target from the 500,000 vehicles proposed by the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Alliance" to 250,000 vehicles. The deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Yizhong recently disclosed at the large-scale forum of the “2011 Global Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Summit” that the national automobile production and sales volume will reach 25 million in 2015. And pure electric cars only account for 1% of the market.

Although the goal has been severely reduced, people in the industry have not criticized it too much. Dong Yang, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, reminded the industry that it needs to correctly understand the current state of research and development of new energy vehicles in China. He said that according to the conclusions drawn from a large number of research work conducted by the mainstream automobile enterprises of the China Automobile Industry Association, China has no obvious advantages in the R&D of new energy vehicles, and it has "comprehensive" compared to the world advanced level. gap.

Zhao Hang, director of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, also stated that in China, the heat of new energy vehicles is a bit like the situation in the steel industry. After the government’s call, everyone went to the rescue. Overall, domestic companies have shown some irrationality in developing new energy vehicles.

“The preparation stage of electric vehicles is a fairly long process and it is not possible to quickly increase the quantity. Electric vehicles may grow rapidly after 2020.” An industry veteran told this reporter that “if the “plan” really is 250,000 vehicles, This proves that China's development of new energy vehicles has begun to return to rationality."

Heartbeat greater than action?

All the signs show that the development of new energy vehicles is not as smooth as people think.

Taking private cars as an example, sales of new energy vehicles are not satisfactory, despite the country’s large subsidies for subsidies. Such as BYD, from the official listing in March 2010 to the end of December, its two new energy vehicles F3DM and E6 sold only 417 and 63 vehicles. Not only is BYD this way, all listed companies involved in new energy vehicles currently face such an embarrassing situation.

According to the reporter’s understanding, there is currently no consumer who does not want to buy a new energy vehicle. A car buyer once told this reporter that as the price of oil rises, the advantages of ordinary cars will gradually be lost, and new energy vehicles are The trend of future development, "Anyway, at present its price is similar to ordinary car prices, I think it's better to buy a new energy car."

However, the contradiction is that now almost all new energy models are not fully supplied to the market. 4S stores are basically difficult to trace. Consumers need to contact manufacturers directly if they want to buy, and they have to go through a long period of waiting for a car. And after the first enthusiasm, there are no follow-up private consumers who buy electric cars in many 4S stores.

An industry insider told this reporter that at present, the production and sales figures of many auto companies are not true. "A lot of new energy vehicles sold now are sold to people in auto companies. They also test the performance of cars when they are driving. Now that private car charging piles have basically not been built up, I would like to ask who would have to work hard to save money. Go to the car company to charge?" The source said.

Yao Chunde, executive director of the Chinese Society of Engineering Thermophysics, also made it clear: "A variety of new energy vehicles emerge overnight, some of which are only trying to fish in trouble, in order to defraud the state financial subsidies and preferential policies."

Technically, Zhang Chengning, a professor at the Beijing Institute of Technology's School of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering, said: "Batteries are currently the bottleneck for the development of new energy vehicles." It is understood that the charging methods for electric vehicles can be roughly divided into three types: charging through parking lots. Sockets and homes are charged for a long time, they are quickly charged at the charging station, and battery packs are replaced at the station. No matter which method, it is necessary that the corresponding supporting facilities can be put in place in time to meet the needs of the use of new energy vehicles. Now even the pilot city supporting services such as Beijing and Shanghai are far from the basic guarantee standards.

"New energy vehicles want to enter the family, there are many challenges, the overall view, the current business and consumers are still in the heart than the action phase." An expert who declined to be named told this reporter.

Confidence is more important than gold. Compared with new energy private cars, the development of new energy buses seems to be much smoother. A year ago, when China’s auto companies announced plans to develop electric vehicles, their main goal was electric cars. But now, electric buses seem to be more attractive to their eyes. Because buses, especially buses, are more suitable as electric vehicles than passenger cars. The bus has a fixed driving route, which is much slower than a car, and it is easier for the body to find the space for storing the battery pack.

“Our passenger bus cost is 2.2 million. There are 1.5 million subsidies from the state and local governments, so the price of the bus is almost the same as that of an ordinary passenger car.” A senior automotive group leader told this reporter that “the cost of running a car is not one. 100 yuan."

A professional who studies new energy buses told this reporter that the current technology of new energy buses is relatively mature, and their routes are fixed and management is relatively centralized. Their charging equipment construction is also much easier and more complete than private cars. "However, many problems in the development of electric buses also exist, such as the recent bustling bus self-ignition." The source said.

However, no matter how realistic it is, there are a lot of arguments and the country has become a foregone conclusion in developing new energy vehicles. According to an authoritative body, it is expected that by 2030 the world will fully enter the stage of development of new energy vehicles. The World Bank’s latest report on Action Plan, Challenges, and Opportunities for China's New Energy Vehicles shows: “As of 2025, global electric vehicle sales will account for 2%-25% of annual new car sales. About 10%. This change will lead to significant changes in the entire value chain of the automotive industry."

Zhang Zhihong, deputy director of the High-tech Development and Industry Department of the Ministry of Science and Technology, made it clear that the next five years will be a critical period for the transition from R&D to industrialization of electric vehicles. "I have felt a sense of urgency in seeing the rapid development of electric vehicles in the world during this period of time. But we still have to strengthen our confidence. In a word, confidence is more important than gold." said Zhang Zhihong.