In 2011, the overall market for fertilizers in China was poor, and all varieties showed mixed performance. How is the fat market trend in 2012? All kinds of fertilizers are thin? Sulfur production capacity rose In 2011, domestic sulfur prices fluctuate. In the first quarter, when the annual holiday ended and the external market continued to rise, traders believed that the current month would see an upsurge of purchase after the Spring Festival and a clear intention to increase the quotation. Since the second quarter, sulfur prices have soared. In the mid-term, downstream buyers began to hesitate to purchase, and sulfur prices began to decline. In the third quarter, the overall turnover of the domestic sulfur market was slightly flat. Beginning in the fourth quarter, the European debt crisis spread, and domestic demand for sulfur continues to decrease, making it difficult for sulfur prices to rise again. In 2011, China's sulphur production capacity reached 6.8 million tons. Due to raw material reasons, the actual output was about 4 million tons, the output increased by more than 10% year-on-year, the import volume shrank by approximately 10%, and the domestic apparent consumption increased slightly to 13 million tons. about. China's domestic sulfur supply area is relatively scattered, and sulfur producers are located in refineries and natural gas purification plants throughout the country. In 2012, it is expected that there will be more new production capacity in terms of oil refining, and the corresponding sulfur recovery plant capacity will exceed 1 million tons/year. If both are put into operation in 2012, China's sulphur production capacity is expected to exceed 9 million tons/year, and actual output is expected to reach 4.5 million tons/year. China's external dependence on sulphur will continue to decline and it will drop to 55% by 2015. It is expected that domestic sulfur prices will enter the market from the middle and low price of sulfur prices in 2011. Although the import of sulfur tariffs was reduced in 2012, it will not have much impact on the operation of traders. Fertilization in spring 2012 will be an opportunity for the increase in sulfur prices, followed by the peak period of fertilizer exports. With the same export tariffs on fertilizers, domestic sulfur prices may be pushed up again. The late sulfur price may enter the consolidation phase and prepare for the winter storage of fertilizer in the fourth quarter of 2012. Although the winter storage fertilizer in the fourth quarter is a strong support for the recovery of domestic sulfur prices, it is difficult to guarantee that the sales of chemical fertilizers will decline in 2011. In addition, the domestic price of sulfur is the destabilizing factor of the domestic price of sulfur. However, in the recent years when the import volume is far greater than domestic production, the impact of domestic sulphur prices is still limited. Nitrogen fertilizer is uncertain The fertilizer season in the spring of the first quarter of 2011 was constrained by the severe cold weather. The fertilizer area was dispersed and the time was prolonged. The fertilizer market for nitrogen fertilizer was used in the tepid market. In the second quarter, the issue of low energy-saving and emission-reduction, export surges, high prices, and the inability of the Dongkuo to successfully carry out the remaining low social inventory problems were exposed. In the peak season for fertilizer use in the northeast, the original fertilizer preparation period was not carried out due to the above reasons. In the third and fourth quarter, prices fluctuate frequently, and the downtrend market is favorably supported in many aspects and will be postponed again. The unpredictable market conditions in 2011 are difficult to understand and will continue to lay a foundation for the 2012 market. A brief analysis of the market trend in 2012. 1. Supply and demand side: From the winter of 2011 to the spring of 2012, the domestic urea resources were 30.81 million tons. Among them, the output from October to December 2011 was 13.3 million tons and exports were 1,087,000 tons. From January to April 2012, the output was 18.6 million tons. Together with the end of September carryover of 5.38 million tons of stocks, a total of 36.18 million tons of urea supply. The total demand for the same period was 31.65 million tons, and the supply and demand of urea was basically balanced. 2. Cost side: In 2011, the cost of the domestic urea industry continued to be high and coal prices remained high. In January 2012, the coal price of urea enterprises under Jinmei Coal and Yangmei Coal Co., Ltd. was raised by RMB 100-120/ton, and the cost was increased by RMB 100/ton. At the same time, the average selling price of electricity in most provinces will increase by 3 cents, and the cost will increase by at least 30 yuan/ton. The pressure brought by the cost will continue to plague companies, reduce their profit margins, exacerbate industry competition, and promote the establishment of a mechanism for the survival of the fittest among enterprises. 3. Adjustment of fertilizer structure: At present, the traditional urea is gradually weakening its position in the heart of dealers due to unstable market conditions, transparent prices, unprotected markets, and low profits. New urea and high-nitrogen compound fertilizers are increasingly being affected. The retailer's favor. In addition, the focus of China's later period is to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus and increase potassium, and soil testing and formula fertilization will reduce the amount of urea. 4. Tariffs: In 2012, the urea tariff policy was basically the same as in 2011, but it was clearly stipulated that the benchmark price does not include taxation, and reducing the export threshold in disguise would be a long-term positive for 2012. In a comprehensive view, the first quarter of 2012, the manufacturer’s game continues, and due to the extended use of the fertilizer, the domestic urea mainstream episodes dominate the upside, and the price rises and falls frequently in the quarter. The new equipment is expected to play a role in the second quarter, coupled with the short-term domestic demand there will be flat and export is blocked, the initial price may drop sharply. Later, with the start of the fertilizer market in Northeast China, low inventory will still trigger a price war, and the local market will again rise. Phosphate fertilizer is more rational The price change of monoammonium phosphate in 2011 was mainly reflected in four periods and three fluctuations. The four periods are spring plowing, May-June, autumn sowing-export, and the fourth quarter. The three fluctuations correspond to spring plowing, May-June, autumn sowing-export. In the three fluctuations, the price of monoammonium was higher than a wave and showed a step-like rise. The development of diammonium was mainly in two periods. It rose moderately from one to three quarters, and it gradually recovered after a one-off adjustment in the fourth quarter. In 2012, the market price changes and trends of ammonium phosphate will be more rational, and one ammonium volatility will be more pronounced than diammonium. The price of mono-ammonium is more varied as the demand changes. Diammonium oscillated slightly and the main line steadily rose. The following four factors affect the 2012 ammonium phosphate market. Domestic demand, foreign exports, raw materials, and agricultural and sideline products. Domestic demand determines that the price of ammonium phosphate will rise at a high level; price reflection will generally be reflected in February-March, 8-10 months; while exports will make market prices stable in June-September. Since the 2012 policy facilitates exports, the price of ammonium phosphate is expected to rise in the period when fertilizers and exports overlap in the fall. During the rest of the time, ammonium phosphate concentrates mainly in the following line. The price of raw materials is expected to be high in 2012. Phosphorus ore is at a relatively high level. Although sulfur is expected to decline, it will not experience a sharp drop from 2008 to 2009. The overall cost still has some support. This has limited the room for ammonium phosphate prices to decline. In 2012, under the constraints of the overall weakness of agricultural prices and the control of state policies, it is expected that terminal farmers will not accept too high prices. Coupled with the impact of excess supply and demand, ammonium phosphate prices will not exceed 2011 points in 2012. Compound fertilizer market trend is clear "The peak season is not prosperous and the off-season is not light". This is the best description of the fertilizer market in the past year. In 2011, the price of compound fertilizer in the country was not in the range of fluctuations, and it was in a state of high operation throughout the year. The price of sulfur-based compound fertilizer is 2650 yuan to 3,000 yuan/ton. Today, the homogenization trend in the compound fertilizer market is getting weaker and weaker, the characteristics of consumer products of compound fertilizers are becoming more and more obvious. Everyone is paying more and more attention to the strength of the brand. Due to the high price of compound fertilizers in 2011, there was no significant progress in light storage from October to November. The annual shipment to the northeast is at least 60% year-on-year. Due to the early Chinese New Year in 2012, December entered the critical period of light storage. As of December 31, 2011, the storage and storage enterprises have accumulatively transferred more than 18.8 million tons of chemical fertilizers, including 11.1 million tons of urea, and more than 16.7 million tons of chemical fertilizers, including about 9 million tons of urea. The original increase in electricity prices had a positive effect on stimulating distributors and goods, but it was counterproductive. After the increase in raw material prices, compound fertilizers were correspondingly active. The leading compound fertilizer manufacturers raised prices one after another, and the increase ranged from 50 yuan to 100 yuan per ton. However, this move has not only stimulated the desire of dealers to buy, but the market sentiment is even more intense, currently sent to the Northeast source of less than 40%. Analysis of the reasons for the above review: Today's farmers are not getting higher and higher and more and more confused, and today's dealers are not getting more and more sophisticated but more and more rational. Therefore, how a company achieves a win-win situation with its distributors and how to guide end users to make reasonable choices may become one of the important factors for grasping the market later. Luxe Bike Bell,Bell For Cycle,Kids Bicycle Bell,Bell Bicycle Accessories SHAOXING KUNLUN IMP AND EXP CO.,LTD , https://www.shaoxingkunlun.com
In 2012, the price difference between monoammonium and diammonium was reasonable, ranging from RMB 400 to RMB 500 per ton.
In 2012, the fat market in Fei City was thin?