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Russian experts suspect that the Russian government may not really allow Chinese capital to enter its strategic resources
It has been reported that a Russian oil company and China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec) have signed a strategic cooperation agreement, focusing on the joint development of the continental shelf in Magadan, East Siberia, and the Arctic seas. This agreement theoretically opens the door for Chinese firms to eventually gain access to Russian mineral resources. However, some Russian experts remain skeptical, questioning whether the Russian government will truly allow foreign capital—especially from China—to enter its strategic resource sectors.
Lukasov, an analyst at Russia’s “Athon†investment firm, noted that Chinese companies have historically struggled to secure Russian energy assets. A few years ago, Sinopec attempted to join the bidding process for Russia’s Slavic Oil Company but was forced to withdraw. Later, they tried to acquire Orenburg’s “Motivation†oil and gas processing company but were blocked by Russia’s antitrust authority. Gazprom ultimately won the deal. In late 2022, during the auction of Yukos’ largest subsidiary, Russian officials reportedly discouraged Chinese participation. Rosneft eventually secured the $6 billion acquisition, though prior to 2010, Chinese companies had already committed to prepaying for 48.4 million tons of oil supply.
Lukasov pointed out that after China’s financial support, Chinese companies have gained more access to Russian oil assets. Earlier this summer, Russian oil firms and Sinopec signed a joint exploration agreement for oil and gas projects, with Russian companies expected to receive production licenses. These developments were reflected in documents prepared by Prime Minister Fradkov ahead of his November visit to China. The list of Sino-Russian economic cooperation projects included the Magadan Peninsula, the Arctic Sea shelf, East Siberia, and Yakut oil production, as well as the publicly announced “Sakhalin-3†project. However, both sides remained silent, neither confirming nor denying the details.
According to Lukasov, most of the areas outlined in the memorandum are strategic and will be open for tender once the new Mineral Law is passed. In Eastern Siberia, the Chayanjinsk area, shared between Yakutia and Irkutsk, holds 50 million tons of oil and 1.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas. The Okhotsk-Hamikartan shelf plans three projects—Magadan 1, 2, and 3—with 1.2 billion tons of oil and 1,200 billion cubic meters of gas. The Arctic shelf is estimated to hold 66.5 billion tons of oil, with key areas in the Barents Sea and Sakhalin.
Sanakoyev, director of the Russia-China Economic Cooperation Center, stated that for Rosneft to involve Chinese partners, it must maintain control over the assets. If the cooperation terms are transparent, Russian companies would be open to working with Chinese firms interested in accessing Russian resources.
Anastrorov, an analyst at “Big Three Dialogue,†emphasized that developing offshore oil and gas requires massive investments. Given the heavy debt burden of Russian oil firms, seeking foreign partners makes sense. For Chinese companies, this could lead to long-term strategic alliances and eventual access to Russian resource licenses, despite past failures.
However, Lukasov remains cautious about the future of Sino-Russian energy cooperation. He questions whether the Russian government will truly allow foreign capital into strategic sectors. While Russian oil companies may seek financial support, they might not permit foreign involvement in state-controlled resources.