Prospects of the Auto Market in 2018: SUVs in 108 new cars accounted for 58%. Joint Venture Brand Plus New Energy Vehicles

With the end of 2017, the major car companies have also announced new car plans for the new year. We have collected information on the 36 brands and 108 new cars that have been announced so far. Although this is only part of the information, it includes mainstream Chinese brands and joint venture brands. After analyzing them, we can still have a new car in the automobile market next year. General outline:

SUVs are still promising, but the preference for Chinese brands and joint venture brands is not consistent. Chinese brands will provide more compact SUVs, and joint venture brands will focus on new SUVs.

As the second last year before the end of the subsidy preferential policy for domestic new energy vehicles in 2020, there are indeed more and more joint venture car companies that have begun to deploy new energy vehicles. Judging from the results of this combing, the joint venture brand has higher enthusiasm than the self-owned brand. There are only 14 new energy models in the 53 brand new cars, and the number of new energy models in the 39 joint venture brands reaches 17 models.

Self-branded compact SUV market key sedan models attract eye

Through combing, it is found that among the 53 new models of self-owned brand cars in 2018, the SUV is still expected to occupy the largest share. There are 35 new cars and 13 cars, accounting for 66% and 25% respectively.

It is worth noting that there are 17 compact SUVs in the brand new SUVs of their own brands, and there are only 7 small SUVs and 11 medium or medium-sized SUVs.

The compact SUV segment has become a sea of ​​blood in 2017. In the 2016 new car of the 39 SUVs at the Guangzhou Motor Show in 2016, there were 20 compact cars for the debut. It seems that in 2018, the overweight of independent brands in the compact market will make this market more competitive.

However, so many new cars get together and compact SUV segmentation is not to follow the trend, but the choice of the market. From the core price factor, the price range of the self-contained compact SUV is between 100,000 yuan and 150,000 yuan, which is more competitive than the joint venture compact SUV with a price of 150,000-200,000 yuan, and it is currently competing in major car companies. In the third-tier cities below, the sensitivity of consumers to prices is the most important factor that cannot be ignored.

New models of compact SUVs with their own brands are worth noting: the new Chuanqi GS4, Collar 02, WEY vv6, Haval H4 and Baojun 530. These cars also represent the best products that the current independent brands can come up with when facing mainstream consumer groups.

Another big trend that cannot be ignored is that after the independent brands have established a foothold in the SUV market, they have begun to force the car market. In the new brand of self-owned brand cars in 2018, although the proportion of cars is not as good as that of SUVs, their degree of attention is no less impressive. The reason lies in several models that deserve attention: Chuan GA4, Lingke 03, Geely's new Emgrand GL.

Chuanqi GA4 is a brand new compact car built by GAC and is expected to be officially launched in early 2018. While supplementing GAC's existing GA3, GA6, and GA8 sedan product lines, the new car will also challenge its peers Emgrand GL and Roewe i6. It is worth noting whether the Chuanqi GA4 can replicate the success of the Chuanqi GS4 in the SUV in the field of cars.

The Collar 03 is a new compact sedan, which, like the Collar 01, is based on the same platform built by Geely and the Volvo XC40. With the introduction of the lead collar 01 into the market first, after the channel and word of mouth have a certain basis, if the car is priced between 100,000 and 150,000 yuan, then the compact car market will be very competitive. As for the time-to-market, we can only say that the Leadgear 01 has been listed, and the collar 03 is still far behind.

JV brand small SUV will face battle

The statistics of the joint venture brand 2018 new car SUV and car distribution is almost the same. Of the 39 new models, 19 are SUVs, and the remaining 18 models are sedans. There is no new MPV plan announced yet.

Unlike the independent brands, the joint venture brand focuses the new SUV on the small SUV. Among the 19 SUVs, there are 10 small-sized SUVs and only 6 compact SUVs. The remaining three models are medium-sized or medium-sized SUVs.

The small SUV market is even more entry-level, and it also tests the OEM's preference for young consumers. In the current market, there are a large number of self-owned brand models in this market segment, but Honda Binzhi and XR-V among the joint venture brands are still hot models. According to the data from the CLUCC, the Honda Binzhi and XR-V are In the first 10 months of this year, the total sales volume was 121,054 units and 141,292 units. It can be seen that the joint venture brands are competitive in this market segment.

Maybe it is confident in the brand influence of the young consumer groups. In 2018, the joint venture brand will focus on this market and invest in heavy models. Among them are worth mentioning: C-HR/Zhaoze, FAW-Volkswagen T-Roc, Beijing Hyundai Encino and so on. C-HR/Takizawa is Toyota's new car based on the TNGA platform. FAW Toyota is named "Takizawa" and Toyota Motor is still called C-HR. When this car is determined to be listed in China in 2018, it is widely believed that the market structure of small SUVs will be broken. FAW-Volkswagen T-Roc is expected to be listed in July 2018. This car not only makes up for the shortcomings of FAW-Volkswagen in the SUV model, but also is an important model for the Volkswagen brand to promote the SUV strategy in China. Whether Beijing Hyundai Encino will continue to push down the price of joint venture brand models after its listing, and whether its market performance can pull Beijing Hyundai to the bottom is a matter of great concern.

2018 new energy new car: luxury brand, joint venture brand passion

In respect of luxury brands, there are not many brands that have announced a clear plan, but there are many key models that are worth paying attention to in 2018. On the fuel vehicle side, the Volvo XC40, Cadillac XT4, the new BMW X3, and the Audi Q2 are all seen as heavy vehicles that have the power to stir. Who better between Volvo XC40 and Cadillac XT4 luxury compact SUVs? Will the Audi Q2 be the cheapest luxury mini SUV? Their market performance is worth the wait.

In terms of new energy vehicles, BMW and Lexus are still taking the lead in new energy, and Audi will also invest in a new A8L e-tron, a key new energy model.

In the two years that independent brands have waded into the new energy market, the actual investment in luxury brands and joint venture brands in the new energy market in China in the past two years is actually not large, but this phenomenon may change from 2018. At the just-concluded 2017 Guangzhou Auto Show, Toyota’s Minister of China, Mr. Daisuke Hiroshi, stated that since the electric vehicle market is developing rapidly in China, Toyota has started discussions with local joint venture partners FAW and GAC on the possibility of domestically produced pure electric vehicles. , and will introduce Toyota pure electric vehicles to the Chinese market in 2020.

From the perspective of Daxi’s ambition, we can see that the joint venture brand new energy has been gearing up for 2020. There are two reasons:

The first is the market size. According to the calculation of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, by 2020, sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to reach 2 million vehicles.

The second is policy implications. The first is pressure from policy. On June 13, 2017, the Legal Affairs Office of the State Council promulgated the "Measures for the Parallel Management of the Average Fuel Consumption of New Passenger Cars and New Energy Vehicles (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)", proposing the company's average fuel consumption (CAFC) and new energy vehicles. NEV conducts a "parallel" management mechanism, that is, a double-point system. It is planned to set the requirements for the proportion of new energy vehicles for passenger vehicles of China's traditional energy passenger vehicles that have an annual production or import volume of more than 50,000 passenger vehicles. Specifically, from 2018 to 2020, the proportion of new energy vehicles for passenger car companies will be 8%, 10%, and 12%, respectively. If the points are not up to the standard and the negative points are not paid off, the car enterprises will face the suspension of applying for the automobile catalogue and the suspension of the production or import of some traditional automobile models. Followed by the favorable policy. China's subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will expire in 2020, when China's domestic new energy car companies will no longer enjoy preferential policies.

Therefore, as can be seen from the above-mentioned consolidation information, joint venture brands such as FAW-Volkswagen, Dongfeng Nissan, FAW Toyota, GAC Toyota, and Dongfeng Yueda Kia all have new energy vehicle launch plans, although most of them are plug-in hybrid vehicles, but as the West According to the information disclosed by Honesty’s statement, joint venture brands have made substantial moves to launch new energy vehicles in China: Toyota’s TNGA platform + THS hybrid system, Honda’s “Sharp Hybrid”, Buick Blue, Nissan’s i- The power plan will be concentrated in the Chinese market in 2018.