Promote natural gas commercial vehicles should not follow suit

On August 1, Heilongjiang, Shandong and Lanzhou, Gansu, and Ningbo, Zhejiang announced that they will increase the price of NG (natural gas) for vehicles. Prior to this, Hunan, Anhui, Hebei, Jiangsu and other places have taken the first step in price increases. The continuous rise in gas prices has undoubtedly poured cold water on road transport companies that are preparing to vigorously develop NG trucks and buses.

In fact, there have been different opinions in the industry regarding the wide-scale promotion of NG trucks and buses. A veteran executive of a road transport company in Jiangsu Province once reminded: “Promote NG trucks and buses to avoid blindly following the trend and be careful about boating.” The biggest concern among opponents is that the primary factors driving the promotion of NG trucks and buses are gas prices and fuel prices. The ratio must be maintained at a reasonable critical point. The industry generally believes that it is 0.75:1. When the ratio exceeds the critical point, the cost-effectiveness of gas products will no longer exist.

The author's investigation found that if the price of CNG (compressed natural gas) exceeds 4.8 yuan/liter, and the price of LNG (liquefied natural gas) exceeds 6.5 yuan/kg, the cost advantage of promoting NG card buses will be greatly reduced.

At the same time, the high purchase cost and maintenance cost of vehicles is also an important factor restricting the promotion of NG-card passenger cars. About 20% of the cost of acquisition and more than 15% of maintenance cost increase have to be considered. If spark plugs used in LNG passenger cars are mostly imported, the price is 130-150 yuan, theoretically 100,000 kilometers can be used, but the spark plugs need to be replaced when the vehicles are generally 70,000-80,000 kilometers. CNG passenger cars have to replace spark plugs and ignition coils at the same time, which is more costly. Most domestic spark plugs can only use 1-2 months, had to choose to import the ignition device, which is a lot of money for companies using NG buses in batches.

In addition, the uncertainty in the later stage of product operation and the lack of knowledge of road transport companies in the operation of NG products have also become a major constraint for the promotion of NG card passenger cars. Nowadays, the use of CNG products has gradually matured, but the relevant characteristics of LNG have not been thoroughly explored. The lack of maintenance experience and the lack of professional teams cannot be ignored. For example, in the southern region, NG buses need to solve the problem of technical stability under the perennially high temperature environment; engine cabin temperature, temperature of the engine cooling water; air humidity, high salt content, working conditions and life of electronic components, Corrosion resistance of related parts, engine oil pressure is too low, consumption and other issues.

Since 2013, various manufacturers have accelerated the promotion of NG products. Many road transport companies use LNG as a “saving straw” to reduce costs in the face of declining attendance, increasing fuel and labor costs. Many transport companies will promote the development of NG passenger cars as their corporate strategy, and they are even preparing to replace all updated vehicles with LNG buses.

The China Natural Gas Vehicle Development Forum held in Hainan in November 2012 clearly stated that “promoting healthy and sustainable development of natural gas vehicles”. Road transport enterprises should combine actual conditions and develop NG trucks and buses according to their local conditions, and control their total amount within a reasonable range. Otherwise, they will follow suit blindly, and the ship is in trouble. It is too late.