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Fang Hao, vice president of the Industrial Planning and Research Institute of China National Chemical Information Center, made the above judgment yesterday at the 5th anniversary celebration of the institute.
Fang Fang proposed that from the perspective of China’s economic growth cycle, China ushered in the peak years of economic growth in 1978, 1984, 1992, and 2007. According to this cycle, China’s next peak of economic growth will appear in “10. The end of the second five-year period.
"From the point of view of the development of China's economic growth cycle, several years before the peak of economic growth means inflation, rising raw material prices, rising interest rates, and changes in the structure of economic growth," Fang said.
The resulting increase in the price of raw materials will make raw material suppliers become beneficiaries of a new round of inflation. Although terminal consumers will also become cost-seekers, Fang Hao believes that midstream product manufacturers will become the next 5 The biggest victim of the year.
Similar to the cyclical nature of China's economy, Fang Fang proposed that the petrochemical industry as a midstream industry also experiences cyclical changes from low to high peaks every 8-10 years, and the petrochemical industry's recent boom. The high point is in 2007. It is currently in a downhill period and is expected to continue into 2015.
“At present, China’s emergence of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry is one of the manifestations of the petrochemical industry entering into a trough.†Fang Wei said in an interview with the “First Financial Daily†that in recent years, when the petrochemical industry also increased according to previous market trends At the time of production capacity, the gradual slowing down of market demand cannot digest the entire production capacity.
Fang Fang said that in the next five years, China's chemical industry will not be likely to maintain a high growth rate of 25%-35% in previous years. The optimistic estimate is that its growth rate may fall back to around 10% in the next few years. , "To ensure that GDP 'guarantee eight', at least a 10% growth rate."
How Chinese companies overcame the negative impact of the upcoming petrochemical industry's low period, Fang Fang proposed that we must closely connect with the strategic emerging industries proposed by the Chinese government in order to counter the trend.
According to Fang Ju’s judgment, in the coming years, the new chemical materials industry, including engineering plastics, organic silicon materials, special synthetic fibers, and organic fluorine materials, will usher in rapid development during the trough, and will continue to grow. The government will also increase Great policy and financial support.
Experts Say Petrochemical Industry Will Be in Low Phase in the Next 5 Years
The peak of China's economic growth in the future may appear at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, starting from the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†to achieve a soft landing. At the same time, between 2010 and 2015, the petrochemical industry in China and the world will be in a downturn.