Container Shipment Surpasses Expectations in Third Quarter

The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was down 1% from the previous week.

SCFI last week was 1259 points, down 1% from the previous week. The trans-Pacific line freight index and the Asia-European line freight index decreased by 4% and 1% respectively compared with the previous week, but the loading rate basically remained at 80%-90%. The slowdown in demand has enabled container companies to reduce their capacity - following the announcement of Maersk's and Great Alliance's reduction of 4.6% in capacity, the CKYH Alliance also announced a reduction of 0.2% of the Asia-Europe capacity.

Container shipping company's third-quarter results exceeded expectations.

The third-quarter container shipping companies in Asia have significantly exceeded their market estimates in the third quarter, mainly due to stronger than expected freight rates during the peak season. Although freight rates began to decline during the off-season in the fourth quarter, the performance in the third quarter boosted investor sentiment and may give short-term support to share prices.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 4% compared with the previous week, but coal freight rates rose sharply.

Compared with the previous week, BDI decreased by 4% and dropped to 2648 on November 1. Capesize-style boat rental income fell by 5% compared to the previous week. Demand for thermal coal in the winter caused the Panamanian ship rental income to continue to rise steadily by 5%. China's domestic coastal coal freight rates rose by more than 30% from the previous week, mainly due to the start of winter coal restocking. We think this is good for China Shipping Development (12.36, -0.12, -0.96%) because the company has a large number of coastal coal transportation business.

The seasonal rebound in the iron ore trade in the fourth quarter may be weaker than in previous years.

We visited Rizhao Port last week. Local iron ore traders believe that the seasonal rebound in iron ore imports in the fourth quarter of this year may be weaker than in previous years because (1) steel mills' capacity constraints led to low profit margins, resulting in a situation in which some private steel mills have a shortage of funding chains. (2) Local governments may increase supervision of power cuts in order to achieve the "Eleventh Five-Year" energy-saving emission reduction targets. Ore traders and port management believe that iron ore imports may resume early in the implementation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” (first quarter of 2011).