How long does it take to be a car power?

Less than ten years! This is the time left for China to change from a big car country to a car power.

Last week at the Second China Independent Brand Automobile Seminar, a veteran and old expert in the industry was full of confidence and is also full of expectation: "China's auto industry has become a major force in the mainstream of independent innovation and development. In order to achieve these goals, our automobile industry will change from big to big. Ten years will change. In 20 years we will be able to dominate, and we need to go through a difficult process.

The actual time has been less than ten years.

This conclusion is not based on the development needs of the automotive industry itself. Instead, it is based on the sixth census data released this year. The total population in China is 1.37 billion, of which children aged 0-14 years account for 16.60%. 15 The proportion of young and middle-aged people up to the age of 59 is as high as 70.14%, and the population aged 60 and above is 13.26%. This data shows that the age structure of China’s population is already at the moment when the “demographic dividend” is being supplied. According to demographic analysis, by 2020, the "popular bonus period" that can be enjoyed by China's social economy will end. The so-called demographic dividend means that the working-age population of a country occupies a large proportion of the total population and the dependency ratio is low. This has created a favorable population condition for economic development. The economy of the entire country is in a situation of high savings, high investment, and high growth.

As far as Chinese cars are concerned, the weakening of the demographic dividend will be detrimental to the development of the industry in two aspects, especially the pressure on autonomous vehicles.

First of all, the first impact of the “low tide” in demographic dividend is the increase in labor costs for car companies. In the past decade, Chinese auto companies have always attacked the market with low-cost, low-price or large-size, cost-effective models, a large part of which has benefited from China's low labor costs. However, in 2004, the “labor shortage” began to spread. When peasant workers sharply cut 2 million, it means that the era of low-cost labor has entered the end of the period, and the level of pay for junior workers and corresponding labor costs have doubled. Those that have been directly hit are companies that are inefficient and blindly expanding. Almost all auto companies lose their workers on the production line before and after the Spring Festival every year. In the next 10 years, China’s labor force will have 300 million elderly people, and the labor costs of industrial workers will inevitably increase.

The second impact is on the technological innovation and product upgrade of autonomous vehicles. An industry expert told the reporter very anxiously: Nowadays, R&D companies in automotive companies are pursuing technology purchases from abroad. However, Chinese companies often suffer from foreign technical barriers, and technologies are not sold to you. Independent R&D is the only way to strengthen autonomous vehicles. . However, the lack of basic skills and talent required for R&D and production now wants to recruit an eight-level fitter in the talent market, even if the monthly salary is 8,000. What is currently lacking in the Chinese auto industry is a technician and technician with a background in vocational and technical training. The Chinese automobile industry took the road of the introduction of a joint venture for 20 years. The number of cars has gone up. Those who engage in cars have gone. Sad!

Compared with the increase in costs, the market pressure brought about by demographic changes in the next decade will even make Chinese cars worse.

Some experts analyze that the current domestic average car age is about 32 years old, and this age is rapidly declining. The average first-time car purchase age is less than 30 years old. In this way, the high growth rate interception point of the auto industry is expected to come in 2018. However, there are unexpected circumstances. The growth rate was "straight" this year. Dong Yang, secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, reduced the forecast for the growth rate of automobile production and sales to 5% this year, which is the lowest data for the forecast growth in the industry. For an industry that has been accustomed to high-speed growth for more than a decade, the impact of a sudden drop in growth rate has caught many auto companies off guard and the automotive industry has a bad outlook.

When China’s autos have to become stronger, they need time and need people. The only thing that can be left to the car is the shortage of people. It is not enough. This is a challenge to Chinese automakers. It is hoped that the Chinese auto Jedi will live on the scene!