The photovoltaic industry, lighting up the hope of China's energy economy


I. Photovoltaic industry: the latest development direction of new energy utilization From the perspective of human energy progress, we have experienced three stages: the first is fire, the second is coal, and the third is oil. Every advancement in energy technology has led to a tremendous increase in social productivity and a significant improvement in people's living standards. Every leap in productivity, every advancement in human civilization is the role of energy, and energy is the most important material basis for social development. Since the industrial revolution, human demand for energy has grown. As time goes into the 21st century, mankind has created a huge miracle of wealth in the course of 300 years of industrial civilization. However, industrial civilization relies on the one-time fossil energy consumption on the earth and the pace of advancement has faced the threat of slow development and even stagnation with the advent of the fossil energy crisis. Energy, which gives the blood and vitality of modern civilization, is also threatening the evolution of humanity in the future. There is data showing that the increasing pressure on coal, oil and natural gas production will cause these energy sources to be depleted in the next few hundred years. Therefore, finding new energy sources has become a common issue for human beings.
In the face of the energy crisis, will humans find a way out? Among the new energy sources that human beings are looking for, solar energy is the most inexhaustible source of energy. Is the sun eternal? As an ancient energy source, solar energy existed long before humans appeared. Sun exposure may be the earliest and most primitive way for humans to use solar energy. Perhaps, from ancient times, the sun-drenched humans have been looking forward to the stars with hopes and dreams, thinking to the sun: ancient Greece gave birth to the legend of the Apollo sun god, and China also dreamed of the myth of Kuafu. Since ancient times, most of the energy that humans can use (except nuclear energy) has been converted from solar energy. This is also the root cause of the ancestors of all ethnic groups around the world who worship the sun.
With the development of technology, solar energy, an old and new energy source, has become a new focus. The world is in the third period of energy transformation. The rapid development of renewable energy and new energy has played an important role in the world energy landscape and has a tendency to surpass traditional fossil energy sources such as oil and gas. Among them, solar energy has attracted much attention from countries with its characteristics of green, low carbon and safety. American scientist Travis. Travis Bradford predicted in his book The Sun Revolution that solar energy will become the most efficient and cheapest alternative energy source in the next 20 years, and its price will fall by half in 10 years. It fell by 75% during the year. Solar energy is the most abundant renewable energy sourced by mankind and the cleanest, safest and most reliable source of energy in the future. Developed countries are taking the development and utilization of solar energy as the main content of the energy revolution. The use of solar energy mainly includes two aspects: First, solar power generation, which converts solar radiation energy into electrical energy through a conversion device, and is also called solar photovoltaic power generation because it is usually photoelectrically converted by utilizing the photovoltaic effect principle of silicon material; The second is solar thermal utilization, which converts solar radiant energy into thermal energy through a conversion device, and then uses thermal energy to generate electricity, which is called solar thermal power generation. Among the effective use of solar energy, Dayangneng Photoelectric Utilization is one of the most popular projects in recent years, which is the fastest growing and most dynamic research field. The industrial chain formed by the application development of silicon materials is called the photovoltaic industry, including the production of high-purity polycrystalline silicon raw materials, solar cell production, solar cell module production, and related production equipment manufacturing. It is widely believed in the international community that in the long-term energy strategy, solar photovoltaic power generation has a more important position in many renewable energy sources such as solar thermal power generation, wind power generation, ocean power generation, and biomass power generation.
Under the background of the global development of low-carbon and green economy, the solar photovoltaic industry with the advantages of pollution-free, sustainable, and large energy sources has gradually entered the world energy arena. Especially in recent years, with the rapid development of solar power generation technology, various solar photovoltaic products have sprung up like: from solar street lamps to solar grid-connected power generation, from MP3 players to solar vehicles, solar photovoltaic power generation era has come to us. . Currently, photovoltaic power is transitioning from supplementary energy to alternative energy. The three technologies of photovoltaics have their own advantages: the crystalline silicon technology has achieved scale application, the technology is relatively mature, and the market recognition is high. It will still dominate in the next five years, and enjoy a market share of over 75. Thin-film batteries have good light transmission and can be used in the production of various types of small solar applications in building integration applications. Concentrating technology has a high theoretical conversion efficiency, providing long-term development imagination for photovoltaic power generation, and is an important development direction for large-scale photovoltaic power plants in the future. With the continuous advancement of technology, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has dropped significantly. Germany predicts that photovoltaic power generation costs will intersect with conventional power generation costs in 2017, and will be lower than conventional power generation costs. The United States predicts that photovoltaic power generation costs will be intersected with conventional power generation costs around 2015. According to statistics and predictions of the future development trend of photovoltaic power generation by the World Energy Organization, in 2000, photovoltaic power generation accounted for about a few ten thousandth of the total power generation; in 2010, photovoltaic power generation accounted for about a thousandth of the total power generation; by 2020, Photovoltaic power generation accounts for about 1% of total power generation; by 2030, photovoltaic power generation accounts for about 9% of total power generation; by 2040, photovoltaic power generation will probably account for more than 20 of total power generation; by the end of the 21st century, photovoltaic power generation accounts for The ratio will be higher and is expected to exceed 60%. The conventional energy crisis that has appeared frequently in recent years has become a bottleneck restricting the economic development of the international society. As a green and environmentally friendly new energy industry, the photovoltaic industry has become a booming industry in the world. Sunshine is the reliance of the photovoltaic industry and also indicates the future of the photovoltaic industry.
Second, China's photovoltaic industry dilemma: the two earned a small amount of money in the past 10 years, China has achieved remarkable achievements in the development of the solar energy industry. The solar thermal utilization industry is a solar water heater. This is the earliest and large-scale renewable energy industry in China. Now our country has 125 million square meters of solar water heaters, which accounts for about 70% of the world total. In terms of numbers, China is the world's largest solar water heater application.
In the photovoltaic industry, China has also formed a good foundation: First, there are a large number of quartzite deposits, mainly distributed in Fujian, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Henan, Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, etc. The development of crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry has unique advantages. Second, solar cells are one of the few industries in China that are on the same starting line as European and American countries. 2007 is a year of rapid development of China's solar photovoltaic industry. Benefiting from the long-term benefits of the solar industry, the entire photovoltaic industry has seen an unprecedented investment boom. In 2007, China's solar cell production was 1.2 GW, accounting for 28.1% of global production, surpassing Europe and Japan, ranking first in the world. Since 2007, it has maintained its position as the world's largest producer of photovoltaic cells. Among the top 15 solar cell manufacturers in the world, there are 4 in the mainland and 1 in Taiwan, and there are 10 global photovoltaic cell manufacturers in Wuxi Suntech and Jiangxi Saiwei. In recent years, China's photovoltaic industry has experienced explosive growth, and has formed a relatively complete industry covering polysilicon materials, ingots, single crystals, cells, packaging, balancing components, system integration, photovoltaic applications and special equipment manufacturing. chain. Today's photovoltaic industry is a typical economies of scale. It is no secret that the scale of enterprises is winning. However, in the first half of this new round of recovery, Chinese PV companies have once again experiencing amazing manufacturing capabilities: on the one hand, Yingli Photovoltaic enterprises represented by GCL-Poly, LDK, etc., speed up their efforts to improve their vertical integrated industrial chain, especially to expand the capacity of their silicon materials business; represented by Suntech, Tianhe, Artes, Jingao, etc. The PV companies are basically planning to increase the production capacity of their own photovoltaic cells and components to a higher level, and have entered the GW era. On the other hand, some new companies and state-owned enterprises have also made great strides in investing and investing billions of dollars. The situation is not weaker than the existing PV predators. The domestic PV industry is welcoming a round of investment boom, and the competition for capacity expansion is becoming increasingly fierce.
However, although China has become a manufacturing country in the photovoltaic industry, the development of the domestic PV application market has not been significantly promoted. About 95% of PV modules are exported to foreign countries every year. China has yet to escape the fate of the world's factories. Due to the lack of core manufacturing technology and consumer markets, the photovoltaic industry still relies on simple processing and assembly to earn meager profits. In 2010, the global PV market installed capacity was about 15,000 MW, of which PV modules from China accounted for more than 45. According to the industry division from silicon materials (polysilicon materials) to solar cells, the industrial structure of solar photovoltaic power generation presents a pyramid structure with small upstream and large downstream. In terms of profit distribution, it is dominated by the upstream, and the price of high-purity silicon materials accounts for more than 70% of the cost of solar cells. Although downstream solar panels are a clean energy source, upstream industrial silicon purification of high-purity polysilicon is a process of high power consumption and high pollution. In the high-end polysilicon material production process in the industrial chain, because the core technology process is not fully mastered, the reduction and recycling process in the exhaust gas has not been realized yet, and the entire process flow has not been successfully realized to realize the closed circuit cycle of polysilicon production, which to a certain extent Environmental protection poses challenges.
In the global photovoltaic industry chain, the industrial structure of solar photovoltaics has an obvious pyramid shape. The most upstream is the production of high-purity silicon materials, with the highest technical content and the highest profit. The price accounts for more than 70% of the cost of solar cells. The second is the battery. , the battery components and other links, the lower the downstream technical requirements, the thinner the profit. Due to the short history of China's PV industry and weak basic research work, the overall level of China's PV technology is still not high. The efficiency and quality of solar cells and components are still generally lower than the world's advanced level. In the new high-efficiency solar cells and high-purity silicon. The research and development of production technology is also lagging behind developed countries in Europe, America and Japan. Many of the equipment relies mainly on foreign imports. Therefore, China's solar photovoltaic industry still relies mainly on market-driven rather than technology-driven, and lacks strong internal competitiveness. There are two opposite arguments at home and abroad for China's photovoltaic industry. Some domestic experts believe that China's solar energy companies are actually working for foreigners; in Germany, where solar power generation is the fastest growing, some people exclaimed: government subsidized money has entered the pockets of Chinese companies. These two seemingly contradictory statements reflect the biggest dilemma of China's PV industry: at both ends, China is still at the middle of the global PV industry value chain. There are three major problems in the current PV industry structure in China: First, the product structure is unreasonable. High-end raw materials, equipment, testing equipment, manufacturing enterprises, small scale, polysilicon still has about 50, silver paste 100, equipment 20, etc. need to import, most test equipment and instruments rely on imports; low-end solar cell and module production capacity worldwide The 60,95 products need to be exported. Second, the market structure is unreasonable. China is a big country in the world's photovoltaic industry, but domestic consumption is less than 10. The total installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic power generation accounts for only 1 of the total installed capacity in the world, and products are heavily dependent on exports. Third, the technical structure is unreasonable. China's most advantageous are the battery chip and component technology, as well as the development of other emerging batteries, but the equipment technology and raw material technology are not really mastered, basically controlled in the hands of developed countries; China is a large photovoltaic manufacturing country, not manufacturing The strong country, currently earning only processing fees. Both ends are one of the most deadly weaknesses in China's PV industry.
At the beginning of 2011, China's photovoltaic industry began to scream in overcapacity. According to the understanding of several large domestic PV companies, although the export orders were full in the new year, the profits were getting thinner. On March 17, 2011, China's Photovoltaic Industry Alliance (CPIA) and the International Semiconductor Equipment Materials Industry Association (SEMI) released the "2011 China PV Industry Development Report" also showed that the manufacturing capacity of crystalline silicon cells in China will be in 2011. Further expanded from 21GW to 30GW. However, it does not match the speed of expansion. Although the localization rate of polysilicon production equipment has reached 70, high-end production equipment and basic materials.

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Size

1/2"-72" DN15-DN2000

Wall thickness

SCH5-SCH160XXS

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Carbon Steel like A234 WPB, 20G, A105, Q235A/B and alloy steel like ASTM A234 WP5, WP11, WP12

Executive Standard

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Butt Welding

Surface Treatment

grit blasting, black or transparent painting or according to the requirement of client


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