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Market Vitals: Seminar 69 Market Update
After attending ACT Research's Market Vitals: The Current and Future Health of the Market Seminar from August 22 to 24, Kirk Mann from Mitsubishi HC Capital America, Inc. and Steve Tam from ACT Research had a detailed conversation on various topics including economics, clean technology development, the dealer market, pent-up demand and prebuy activity, and the used and medium-duty truck sectors. Continue reading to see their insights from the event.
Here are the key takeaways from their discussion:
**1. Economics**
David Teolis, Michael Zimm from BMO, and Jim Meil from ACT Research shared their unique perspectives on the economy during the seminar. Steve noted that even with the same data, people can draw different conclusions. “This economy is really confusing,†Kirk added. When asked how many in the audience thought a recession was likely, about half raised their hands. Despite the uncertainty, Kirk emphasized that while they can't control market indicators, they can control their next steps. “We’ll get through whatever comes our way,†he said.
**2. Clean Technology Development**
Kirk was impressed by Rick Dauch from Workhorse for his transparency in discussing the EV market. “There’s been a lot of hype around electric vehicles, which isn’t bad—it’s brought attention and investment,†Steve said. However, there are still challenges to overcome. “It’s important for lenders to understand the future landscape of clean energy,†Kirk added. Steve encouraged planning ahead but staying flexible as developments unfold.
**3. Dealer Market**
The dealer panel, featuring Laura Perrotta, Jodie Teuton, and Maria Sherwood, provided valuable insights into how dealers have adapted to changing conditions. Kirk called the session “telling†and highly recommended it. He pointed out that demand for trucks is strong, but supply chain issues continue to limit availability. Steve explained that fleets have been unable to replace trucks at full levels, creating a significant amount of pent-up demand. While progress has been made, these challenges won’t be solved overnight.
**4. Pent-Up Demand + Prebuy**
Kirk predicted that the upcoming emissions standards in 2027 could lead to historic prebuy years in 2025 and 2026. However, OEMs will need to boost production capacity to meet this demand. Steve added that some prebuy units might actually show up in 2024 due to labor considerations. “OEMs have a more aggressive forecast than we do, and part of that is because they want to keep their workforce active,†he said.
**5. Used & Medium Duty**
Steve was surprised by the volume of used truck sales and the downward trend in prices, making it a good time to shop for used trucks. On the medium-duty side, he was impressed by the resilience of the market. “Demand has held up better than expected,†he said. There’s always a balance between the medium and heavy-duty sectors, with trade-offs happening constantly. Overall, the used and medium-duty markets remain strong despite broader industry challenges.