·In the first half of the year, the monthly inventory index was higher than the warning line.

Since the beginning of this year, the auto dealer inventory index has remained high. The Gesta Auto reporter found that the China Auto Dealer Inventory Index was released above the warning line in the first half of this year by arranging the “China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index Survey” issued by the China Automobile Dealers Association. The highest value in the first half of the year is February. It reached 66.6%, and the lowest value in May, corresponding to an index of 51.8%.

From the overall trend, the dealer inventory index showed a downward trend from February to May, but by June it rose again to 58.2%. The China Automobile Circulation Association speculates that the main reason is that the market demand caused by the auto market entering the traditional off-season in June has declined. In the corresponding survey, according to the feedback from the dealers, some consumers have an expectation for the “Automobile Sales Management Measures” implemented on July 1, and they have a strong wait-and-see attitude. At the same time, the property market policy also affects consumers’ purchase of cars. Decision making. In order to complete the half-year goal, some of the OEMs have increased the number of dealers to pick up the car; dealers are forced by inventory pressure, price reduction sales, lower profits, and increased operating pressure.

The association expects that market demand will decrease in the next July compared to last month. Part of the reason is that in the inventory warning index survey, the proportion of dealers who believe that market demand is “increased” is 10.6%; the proportion of market demand “decreased” is 36.2%; the proportion of market demand is “flat” is 53.3%. In addition, dealers are expected to be in poor operating conditions in July. According to the survey, the proportion of “good” business conditions in July was 13.1%, and the proportion of “bad” was 30.7%; the proportion of “normal” operating conditions was 56.3%.

In addition, the association pointed out that in July, the upcoming New Deal will affect the needs of some customers; in the second half of the year, the policies of the OEM will also be adjusted. However, as the temperature continues to rise, the rate of consumer arrivals will continue to decline. It is expected that the operating pressure of dealers will remain high in July. Therefore, the dealer should rationally estimate the actual market demand according to the actual situation and reasonably control the inventory level to prevent the inventory pressure from being too large, leading to operational risks.

Additional instructions:

1. According to the principle of PMI preparation, the inventory warning index adopts the method of compiling the expansion index, with 50% as the glory line. Below 50% are within reasonable limits. The higher the inventory warning index, the lower the demand for the market, the greater the inventory pressure, the greater the operating pressure and risk.

2. The survey of dealer inventory is mainly for the 2014 China Automotive Distribution Industry Top 100 Dealer Group. It covers more than 1,000 4S stores in most provinces of the country and has extensive brand coverage, covering 55 major import, joint venture and independent automobile brands in the domestic market.

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